Record breaking trading volume of the hottest PTA

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PTA positions and trading volume broke records

driven by speculative funds, PTA positions and trading volume both hit a record high on Monday, and the price once hit 7900 points. However, given that the fundamentals are still short, it is difficult to reverse the rising market

px's recent rise is difficult to sustain

crude oil prices rose to $83 at the beginning of August, and PX prices also rose from the lowest $818 in July to the highest point of $940 in August, but fell back to below $900 again over the weekend, making PX's rise difficult to sustain and more constrained by excess supply

from the perspective of PX supply and demand pattern: it is difficult to fundamentally change the PX oversupply in Asia, resulting in the px-mx price difference has remained at a slight fluctuation between the US dollar since February 2010, and PX production has been struggling on the edge of loss. Although PX manufacturers are reducing the unit operating rate after a recession of up to half a year, it is difficult to change the PX oversupply pattern that has lasted for nearly half a year. In addition, with the current PX price of about $900, the cost of accounting to PTA is only about 6150 yuan/ton, which is difficult to form a substantial cost support for the current spot price of 7200 yuan/ton

On August 12, the Ministry of Commerce announced the implementation of anti-dumping duties on PTA in South Korea and Thailand. Due to the simultaneous application of torque loads, PTA spot profits are still maintained at around 1000 yuan/ton, while PTA imported from South Korea is only levied 2 7% anti-dumping duty, which is lower than PTA's anti-dumping Market Forecast: the 2018 water treatment pre control report points out that the tax rate announced at the time of the preliminary determination will not affect imports from South Korea and Thailand in the short term. In the medium and long term, once the contradiction between supply and demand in PTA industry intensifies and PTA profits seriously shrink, the anti-dumping policy can effectively curb the influx of foreign goods, which is conducive to maintaining the balance of domestic PTA supply and demand

from the perspective of supply, Yangzi Petrochemical started maintenance last Friday, involving a production capacity of about 1.3 million tons. Xianglu Petrochemical also has a short-term maintenance plan in August. The maintenance of these devices has been expected by the market. According to the statistics of the production capacity of maintenance devices and their maintenance time, the market supply will be reduced by about 10000 tons, which is not obvious relative to the monthly PTA production and import volume. According to the PTA social inventory at the end of 2009 and the monthly production and demand in 2010, the recognized PTA social inventory data in the industry is 1.7 million tons

according to insiders, a large amount of social inventory is still stored in traders. PTA spot arbitrage with an initial cost of $1000 still has no chance to unravel, and is more inclined to carry out futures arbitrage in the PTA futures market, which will significantly suppress the PTA spot and futures market. PTA futures warehouse receipt data, which has been at a historical high, can become a proof of the high PTA social inventory

demand through experiments, hidden dangers gradually surfaced

the impact of high-temperature power rationing policy on textile and texturing enterprises is far greater than that of polyester factories. According to the author's understanding, Zhejiang Changxing loom, an important textile town in China, will be suspended for 50 days according to the steel pipe standard according to the requirements of energy conservation and emission reduction. The texturing machine will be suspended for 20 days. Textile enterprises and texturing factories will basically stop purchasing polyester products. At the same time, the operating load of looms in Haining, Changshu, Shengze, Fujian and other places fell to around 50%. At the same time, the high silk price also made textile enterprises wait-and-see attitude towards new orders. The sluggish demand for terminals may continue until mid September, and when the traditional peak season that the market places high hopes on will come is still unknown

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